BHP Share Price Performance in 2026: Why the Stock Is Up 31.88% Year to Date

31.88% up year to date. Record earnings. Copper now bigger than iron ore for the first time ever. BHP has had a strong run and the operational update from April explains a lot of why.

BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP)

BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) The nine month update out on 22 April 2026 covered operations through 31 March 2026. Copper and iron ore both held up well and the growth project side of things kept moving. The share price is 31.94% higher so far in 2026 and has gone up 55.61% across the last twelve months. Record earnings have been the main driver behind that. BHP's CEO also spoke at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference in Miami around this time, talking about stepping up the pace of growth while keeping costs and capital in check.

What the Production Numbers Showed

Nine month copper output was 1,461 KT, about 3% below the same period last year. Escondida was the main reason — feed grade dropped to 0.91% from 1.05% previously. Even so BHP kept its full year copper guidance at 1,900 to 2,000 KT and now thinks it lands in the top half of that range.

 Antamina had a big quarter, production jumped 43% and guidance got lifted to 150 to 160 KT. Spence went the other way — guidance was cut because the ore variability there has been difficult to manage consistently.

Iron ore out of Western Australia was 196.6 million tonnes for the nine months, 2% better than last year. Full year guidance of 258 to 269 million tonnes stayed as is. Samarco looks like it will hit the top end of its 7 to 7.5 million tonne full year range.

Dividend and What BHP Did With Capital

Interim dividend was US 73 cents per share, fully franked, for the half year to December 2025. Underlying profit for that half was US$6.2 billion. The big headline inside that number was copper overtaking iron ore as the top earnings contributor — 51% of group underlying EBITDA came from copper. First time that has ever happened in BHP's history.

In April 2026 BHP closed a silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals. BHP got US$4.3 billion upfront for its 33.75% share of Antamina silver production going forward. The Carajas sale also finished, adding US$240 million to the pile. A deal was also locked in with Global Infrastructure Partners to sell BHP's piece of the WAIO inland power network. All of this together has put the balance sheet in better shape ahead of what will be a big spending phase in copper and potash.

Copper Projects and Where BHP Is Headed

Management has been pretty direct about calling this the best copper development pipeline in the world. At Escondida a new concentrator is planned, costing somewhere between US$4.4 and US$5.9 billion, and it would add 220 to 260 KT per year of copper while also extending the mine life. Resolution Copper in Arizona, where Rio Tinto runs the show with 55% and BHP holds 45%, got a key land exchange done during the quarter.

Jansen potash in Saskatchewan is still moving toward first ore. Stage 1 is designed for 4.15 million tonnes per year and Stage 2 adds another 4.35 million tonnes per year after that. On iron ore BHP is pushing toward more than 305 million tonnes per year from WAIO over time.

The longer range targets are ambitious. Escondida alone is being pointed at 220 to 260 KT per year by 2035. Across the whole group BHP is targeting copper-equivalent output of 235 to 280 KT per year by 2030, then around 330 KT per year by 2035 when everything is running together.

Source : Company Analysis )