US inflation came in hot this week and a ceasefire deal between America and Iran hung in the balance — and precious metals felt every bit of it.
The PCE numbers landed first. April personal consumption expenditures rose 3.8% compared to the same month last year, the steepest reading since May 2023. Month on month the figure came in at 0.4%. Core PCE — the version that removes food and energy from the calculation — was 3.3% annually and 0.2% for the month. Those numbers matter because the Fed watches them closely when deciding where rates go next.
Though "the Fed" looks a little different now. Kevin Warsh has replaced Jerome Powell at the top and he reads inflation differently — preferring trimmed mean averages that cut off extreme data points at both ends. Some market watchers think that method might soften the picture more than it should.
Higher inflation readings plus rising oil prices plus a stronger US dollar all landed in the same week. That mix hit gold and silver hard around Wednesday and Thursday.
Gold fell to US$3,370 an ounce at the low point. By Friday it had recovered above US$3,500. Silver touched US$72 an ounce before bouncing. Both metals ended the week off their lows but the ride was uncomfortable for anyone holding positions.
The Iran factor made everything harder to read. Fighting between the US and Iran continued through the week despite a ceasefire supposedly being active. Oil spiked on the back of that, the dollar strengthened, and risk appetite dried up — all of which pulled money away from metals temporarily.
Friday brought some relief when word got out that a 60-day ceasefire extension was being worked on, with nuclear talks potentially to follow. Markets responded positively. But as of Friday May 29 neither government had formally confirmed the agreement, leaving the situation genuinely uncertain heading into the weekend.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle from Incrementum — who publishes the "In Gold We Trust" report each year — has been telling people not to chase gold and silver in the near term. His view is that history tends to put the summer low for both metals somewhere between late July and early August, with mining stocks following a similar seasonal pattern. He used the end of the World Cup as a rough timing reference, though he was upfront that this is an observed correlation rather than any kind of predictive tool.
Where Stoeferle gets more excited is the multi-year picture. He's calling this a "golden decade" and hasn't moved off his US$8,900 price target for gold.
Uranium also got attention this week through Justin Huhn of Uranium Insider. The physical uranium market stays his focus and his long term outlook hasn't shifted — he's bullish. What he pushed back on was the idea that weak near-term sentiment is a reason to stay away. His argument was the opposite.
Poor sentiment, high volatility and prices that have pulled back are exactly the conditions that have historically rewarded buyers who did their homework on the underlying supply and demand picture and had enough conviction to act.
Cameco Running Again, Aluminum Hits Multi-Year Peak
Cameco (TSX: CCO / NYSE: CCJ) put a difficult few weeks behind it. A bridge collapse near its Saskatchewan operations earlier this month cut off the main supply route into its Key Lake mill and McArthur River mine, raising concerns about whether 2026 production targets were at risk. The company shifted to a secondary route and got both operations back to full capacity. Guidance is unchanged.
Aluminum had a breakout moment this week. Prices on the London Metal Exchange reached their highest point in four years, driven by supply tightness that traces back directly to the Iran conflict. Chinese smelters ramped up output to fill the gap left by disrupted global supply chains. The next question is whether that ramp-up lasts — Beijing has been running inspections targeting energy consumption and emissions, and cuts to Chinese smelter output could follow. For now though, Chinese aluminum exports are being tipped to set a new record above 680,000 metric tons in coming months, building on a 15% rise already recorded in April.
Source : ( Company Analysis )
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Written by
James Whitfield
james Whitfield
Senior Market Analyst
James covers ASX-listed resources, energy and commodities with over 12 years of experience in Australian financial markets. He specialises in mining sector analysis and macro economic trends affecting the ASX 200.
📝 6 articles published
