BHP share price (ASX: BHP): 2026 performance, the copper flip and a strike that could change everything

The short version: BHP is up 31.88% this year and currently trading at AU$60.56. Copper just beat iron ore as its biggest profit driver — the first time that's happened in 170 years. Earnings jumped 22% in the last half-year result, and the dividend surged 44%. The thing worth watching right now, though, is a Port Hedland worker strike vote scheduled for July 18.

Table of Contents

How BHP has traded in 2026

Why is BHP up so much?

What the last earnings report actually said

Dividends in 2026

The risks investors are watching
Bull case vs bear case

How BHP has traded in 2026

BHP (ASX: BHP) is at AU$60.56 today, July 16, up 3.15% on the session. That one-day move adds to a year that has already delivered 31.88% gains for shareholders — and roughly 62% over the past 12 months

To put the 12-month number in context: most ASX large-caps have not come close. BHP's run has been driven by something more fundamental than sentiment — the company's earnings profile genuinely changed in 2026.

It also officially reclaimed the title of Australia's most valuable listed company, edging out Commonwealth Bank. Analysts expect that gap to widen, not close, given where commodity markets are heading.

Why is BHP up so much?

Three things, and they're all connected.

Copper has taken over. For the first time in BHP's 170-year history, copper generated more profit than iron ore. Copper EBITDA came in at $8.0 billion versus iron ore's $7.5 billion for the half-year to December 2025 That gap will likely widen as BHP's copper production grows and its iron ore exposure stays roughly flat.

Why does this matter to investors? Copper is the metal that electrification runs on. Every EV, every data centre, every grid upgrade requires it. BHP spent years and billions positioning itself there through the OZ Minerals acquisition and expansion at Escondida. The payoff is now showing up in the numbers.

Record copper prices gave it a boost. In late January, BHP shares jumped 1.7% in a single session after copper hit record prices. Price moves like that flow almost directly into margins given BHP's scale.

The Rio Tinto collaboration talks. In January 2026, BHP and Rio Tinto announced they were exploring a joint mining arrangement covering up to 200 million tonnes of Pilbara iron ore. The logic is cost efficiency — shared infrastructure in a region where both companies are dominant. If it proceeds, it would be one of the more consequential deals in Australian mining in a generation.

What the last earnings report actually said

BHP's half-year results for the six months to December 31, 2025, released February 17, were a genuine beat:

• Earnings up 22%
• Copper EBITDA of $8.0 billion beat iron ore's $7.5 billion — the first   time copper has topped the table
• Shares jumped 7% on results day — the best single-session gain   since March 2020
• Total dividends paid to shareholders reached US$3.1 billion for the       half year

The 7% share price reaction on results day is the real signal here. Markets had clearly underestimated how fast the copper transition would show up in the profit and loss statement. Morningstar noted the bullish market response, with a 5% gain on the day of the interim result.

Dividends in 2026

BHP's interim dividend — paid in March 2026 — jumped 44% compared to the prior period,

Total shareholder payments reached US$3.1 billion for the half, per BHP's official results document.

The ASX ex-dividend date for BHP's most recent final dividend was March 4, 2026, per the BHP dividend page.

BHP pays dividends twice a year: an interim (typically February/March) and a final (typically September/October). The 44% jump in the interim was a direct result of the earnings surge — BHP's payout ratio policy ties dividends to underlying earnings, so stronger profits mean larger distributions. Income investors should track the September announcement date for the FY2026 final.

The risks investors are watching

The Port Hedland strike

This is the most immediate risk, and it's happening now. As of early July 2026, three separate unions at BHP's Port Hedland iron ore operations have voted in favour of strike action. Workers are scheduled to vote on actual strike commencement from July 18.

Union leaders have publicly stated that iron ore exports could grind to a halt if action proceeds. Port Hedland is Australia's largest bulk export port — any disruption to throughput directly hits BHP's iron ore revenue. This is worth watching closely in the days ahead.

New CEO transition

BHP is navigating a leadership change in 2026. As Yahoo Finance noted in May, new leadership during a period of strategic repositioning introduces execution risk. It's not necessarily a reason to sell, but it's a legitimate uncertainty — particularly around how aggressively BHP pursues its copper growth plans.

Iron ore price exposure

Copper may now be the earnings leader, but iron ore is still a massive revenue stream. China's property sector has yet to find a bottom, which caps iron ore price upside. If Chinese steel demand softens further, that $7.5 billion EBITDA from iron ore comes under pressure.

Bull case vs bear case

Source : Market Analysis